Aug 21, 2018
LGT Navigator: Trump vs. Fed
US President Donald Trump's renewed criticism of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is unlikely to be well received by the capital markets and call the independence of the central bank into question. Trump criticized Fed chief Jerome Powell and complained that he did not stand for a policy of cheap money. Instead, Powell continued to raise key interest rates. At the same time, Trump dampened hopes of an easing of the trade dispute with China.
The ECB's cautious bias toward an interest rate turnaround, despite the announcement to end its billion-dollar bond purchase program probably at the end of this year, weakened the euro significantly. The ECB maintained its key interest rate at a record low and remained extremely cautious in its communication. At the same time, the Bank of Japan also left its key interest rates unchanged and even lowered its inflation expectations.
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Aug 20, 2018
LGT Navigator: Trade, Turkey & central banks in focus
Trumps trade poker and the Turkish crisis, respectively the risk of contagion, continue to keep the stock markets firmly under control and cause nervousness. From an economic point of view, however, the picture remains relatively solid, as the US early indicator, for example, signaled a continued solid growth trend in the US economy with a more than expected +0.6% increase in July. The bitter pill: At the same time, consumer confidence in the USA deteriorated surprisingly sharply in August.
The ECB's cautious bias toward an interest rate turnaround, despite the announcement to end its billion-dollar bond purchase program probably at the end of this year, weakened the euro significantly. The ECB maintained its key interest rate at a record low and remained extremely cautious in its communication. At the same time, the Bank of Japan also left its key interest rates unchanged and even lowered its inflation expectations.
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Aug 17, 2018
LGT Beacon: Moving toward a neutral positioning
The S&P 500 nearly reclaimed its historic January high over the past six weeks. Strong corporate earnings and good economic data helped investors to forget the trade conflict for a while. Then, the escalating Turkish lira crisis highlighted how quickly a continued rise in US interest rates and tariffs can hurt some economies and weigh on global market sentiment.
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Aug 17, 2018
LGT Navigator: Signs of de-escalation?
In Asia, the stock markets today followed Wall Street's positive direction after talks between the US and China scheduled for the end of August nurtured hopes of an easing in the ongoing trade dispute between the two world's largest economies. A fast agreement in this poker to gain better trading conditions might not be however to expect. Investors also hope for signs of relief in the Turkey crisis.
The ECB's cautious bias toward an interest rate turnaround, despite the announcement to end its billion-dollar bond purchase program probably at the end of this year, weakened the euro significantly. The ECB maintained its key interest rate at a record low and remained extremely cautious in its communication. At the same time, the Bank of Japan also left its key interest rates unchanged and even lowered its inflation expectations.
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Aug 16, 2018
LGT Navigator: Fundamental data remains in the background
Investors remain cautious in the face of a potential further escalation of geopolitical risks (trade war, Turkey, Russia, or Iran) and even solid US economic data were unable to brighten the tarnished stock market sentiment and currently remain in the background in the perception of investors.
The ECB's cautious bias toward an interest rate turnaround, despite the announcement to end its billion-dollar bond purchase program probably at the end of this year, weakened the euro significantly. The ECB maintained its key interest rate at a record low and remained extremely cautious in its communication. At the same time, the Bank of Japan also left its key interest rates unchanged and even lowered its inflation expectations.
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